Alt+NFL Week 9

A Word Of Caution:

Do your homework and make your own decisions! 

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All in all, we’re just a couple of guys sharing our thoughts with you. Mostly, we do this because we enjoy it. At the end of the day, if this stuff makes your laugh, wins you a Fantasy Football Championship, or helps you retire because you won so much fucking money on one of our The Money Play: Sunday Parlays. That’s nice too! 

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PRIMETIME MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Week 9 Prime Time Matchup
The Saints Bucs face off in a tight divisional matchup. Both teams with 4 wins and just one game out of 1st in their division.

GB vs SF

Alt+NFL: I like San Francisco with a healthy defense and a strong run game to take this one. 

Real NFL: I’ll take Green Bay. San Fran is banged up on both sides of the ball and has Nick Mullens in at QB.  Aaron Jones is going to be a game-time decision, but even if he doesn’t go Green Bay has enough firepower on offense and is sound enough on defense to handle the 49ers. The only scenario I can imagine SF winning through is a HUGE day from JaMycal Hasty. Coleman, Wilson, and Mostert are all OUT. McKinnon has been underwhelming. No George Kittle to rely on. Look for Jordan Reed and Hasty to be the focal points of the offense. 

The Money Play: Take GB on the ML -260, Spread (-6), and I like the under 49.5. If you’re a risky fella, go big on the +215 Money Line in favor of SF, if you do, be sure to hit the under at 49.5. I don’t see San Francisco winning in a shoot out. 

SEA vs BUF

Alt+NFL: Buffalo has looked strong, and SEA is certainly not the team they are in real life. Look for Buffalo to take this one at home.

Real NFL: This should be a balanced bout. If Buffalo can get to Wilson consistently, they have a chance, but they’ll certainly need more than the 154 yds 1 INT stat line from Josh Allen. The Seahawks get Jamal Adams back this week, which should make their 6th ranked run defense even tougher. If it turns into a boat race, Buffalo could be in trouble. 

The Money Play: Buffalo is the 3 pt underdog at home with +135 for the ML. If I weren’t a Seahawks fan, I would like them for the upset. If you believe in the upset, take the under at 55 pts. It’s unlikely that the Bills boat race the Seahawks to a victory. If the Bills win, I think it will be via ball control and a low scoring affair. 

BAL vs IND

Alt+NFL: I’ll take Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defense to give Phillip enough trouble. 

Real NFL: In real life, this is a tough one. The Colts defense looked to be in-sync last week against DET, but this Ravens defense has been playing very well too. I anticipate the Ravens trying to get Lamar comfortable again with a heavy dose of hand-offs and play-action shots to Mark Andrews, Willie Snead, and Hollywood. 

The Money Play:  The Colts being underdogs at home is appealing at +120. If the Colts are going to win, I think the over hits with a score similar to what we saw in the PIT vs BAL game. This is another bout between two top 5 defenses.  The over is just 47pts (-110) and the spread is -3 in favor of Baltimore. 

HOU vs JAX

Alt+NFL: The Jags had a big collapse last week against the LAC. It’s tough to recover from such a let down when your record is 3-4. I’ll take Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense to outpace Minshew in this one.

Real NFL: No Minshew. No Magic. The Texans get their second win of the season and their second win against Jacksonville. The Jags are in full tank mode. I’ll be really upset if they do the Stache dirty and take a QB. 

The Money Play: Just about every way I look at this one the money says Houston (-340). If you’re looking into player props, look into a heavy load for James Robinson. I anticipate the Jags trying to keep the backup QB from making decisions. If Minshew held him off for 8 weeks…how good can he be? I’m unsure of how many points this Jags offense will score, I’m guessing not a lot. I like the under of 50.5 (-110) and the Houston -7 spread (-110). 

CAR vs KC

Alt+NFL: The Chiefs are 3-4 in this league. Mahomie just ain’t that tight in Madden. He’s currently #25 in total passing yards…one spot before Tua Tagovailoa who didn’t even play last week.

Real NFL: Naturally, we should smash yes on the Chiefs. Mahomes is playing some really really good football but against some mediocre teams. The Chiefs are the 4th worst run defense in the league and Carolina is coming at them with Mike Davis and a revamped CMC. #TRAPGAME. If I’m the Panthers, I keep Mike Davis as the every-down-guy to pound it between the tackles and I use CMC everywhere on the field. Just get that guy the ball in space and watch what he do with it.

The Money Play: The spread is at 10.5 in favor of the Chiefs. This Carolina team has been playing DECENT football and has looked GOOD at times. I’m all over this game with the +400 money line, 10.5 spread, and 52.5 Over. The Panthers are NOT the Jets. Throw them in a nice little lottery parlay to increase your payout. 

DEN vs ATL

Alt+NFL: Falcons are going to smash. Matt Ryan is 3rd in passing yards. Todd Gurley is in the top 15 for rushing yards. I haven’t seen much out of Denver on the Saturday GREEN ZONE. ATL all the way. 

Real NFL: This scenario got a little trickier. The Broncos showed some grit with their come from behind victory over the Chargers last week. Drew Lock seemed to get his mojo back, and that’s not good for opposing defenses. Denver does have some dynamic young pass-catchers out there. Whichever defense steps up wins this one. I’m taking Denver to control the tempo on the road and hit a few big plays. Noah Fant + Drew Lock = POINTS. 

The Money Play: The Broncos go into the dome at +170 underdogs. Honestly, I think it’s a toss-up, but if you watched that DEN vs. LAC game…you’re betting on Denver! I’m also smashing the over at 50 pts with these offenses playing in the dome. ATL always puts up points, but look for Lindsay to have a huge week too. 

DET vs MIN

Alt+NFL: Dalvin Cook is good at football no matter what universe he’s playing in. He is officially elite and ranks 3rd in rushing, right in between CMC and Saquads Barkley. I’ll take the Vikings to go to 5-3. 

Real NFL: “To see him mentioned on the hot seat in the league is absolutely crazy,” Aaron Rodgers before their loss to the Vikings in week 8. I expect Zimmer to keep things litty with a heavy dose of Dalvin and a home game against another divisional opponent. Stafford historically doesn’t do super well against Mike Zimmer’s Vikings. In the last bout between these teams, Stafford threw 300+ yards for the first time since 09.08.2013 B.Z. (Before Zimmer). No Kenny Golladay, no established run game, semi-sus defense. I’ll take the Vikings.

The Money Play: I’m not too fond of the Lions to upset in Minnesota. I expect ball control from the Vikings in an attempt to keep the ball out of Kirk’s hands – similar to what we saw last week. However, the weather is a non-factor in this game with the fancy new Vikings Stadium so the passing game should be a little more lively. Hit some player props for Dalvin if you can, and maybe a nice one for Justin Jefferson off the play-action. Matt Patricia will certainly be attempting to stop the run, and if he sells out to stop Dalvin, Kirk is capable of putting up some points. MIN (-200) for the ML. Bovada has mysteriously removed their lines on this game. 

NYG vs WAS

Alt+NFL: Danny Dimes has the Giants sitting pretty at 4-3. Dwayne Haskins is still starting in Washington despite a 1-6 record. I’ll take the Giants and a healthy Saquon to run away with it.

Real NFL: This is a tough one to call! The Giants have not been good at protecting Daniel Jones, and the WFT has been a challenging defense regardless of their opponent. A signature of Ron Rivera led units. I like Washington to make things difficult for the Giants offense and their young playmakers Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin to take advantage of the added opportunities. Washington win.

The Money Play: The WFT is favored at home against the Giants, but I expect this game to be determined by just a handful key of plays. The Giants have decent odds on the upset at +125, so they have some appeal there. They’ve shown they can play with talented units (see Tampa Bay week 8). This is the lowest O/U of the week at just 41.5 pts. THE MONEY PLAY IS GOING TO SMASH THAT OVER. The spread is at +/- 3…meh.

CHI vs TEN

Alt+NFL: I like Derek Henry and the Tennessee Titans to play ball control and mitigate that tenacious Chicago pass-rush. The Bears have struggled to find much support for this hilariously successful Nick Foles passing attack. He leads the NFL in yards. Titans win.

Real NFL: Same result. Just get rid of all the Nick Foles leading the NFL in passing. He looks not good. See my NFL week 8 recap above.

The Money Play: Bears have a talented roster. If their QB’s could figure out how to distribute the ball to their offensive playmakers, the upset potential is there! +210 on the road, in Tennessee, is a tall order, but a sweet reward. Their defense has been good enough to get them to 5-3. All that considered, I like the Titans to get right this week after an embarrassing loss to a lesser foe. I like the spread at 5.5 and the under at 46.5. Derek Henry season. 

LVR vs LAC

Alt+NFL: The Raiders are coming off a tough loss to the Browns. The Chargers are coming off a big comeback win over the Jags. I’ll take the hot-hand. Herbert wins. 

Real NFL: This should be an entertaining divisional matchup to watch for the next several years. I like the Raiders to win this one, but again, I think it’s just a few plays that differentiate these two teams. 

The Money Play: The spread is just 1 pt in favor of the Chargers. The ML ain’t shit at -115 and -105. If we’re gambling, though, I’ll take the Raiders and the over of 52.0. Bovada is still revising their lines on this matchup. They’ve removed the Spread and ML offerings as of Wednesday.

MIA vs AZ

Alt+NFL:  The Dolphins opted for Fitzpatrick over Tua this week and it resulted in a win. Tua has been passable, but the coaches are looking for something more. To date on the season, he has thrown for 1387 yards and a 9:6 TD to INT ratio. Fitzpatrick’s first start resulted in a 19/21 217 yards 1 TD state line, not bad for the seasoned vet! Rumor has it, Arizona is on the verge of a major shake-up with the looming trade deadline just 3 weeks away. This is a tough contest to call, but I’ll take the Cardinals coming off their bye. 

Real NFL: In reality, I’m rolling with the Cardinals to handle the Dolphins without too much trouble. They’re coming off their bye week, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare and the Dolphins have a lot of changes happening on the offensive side of the ball. Namely, Tua has GAINED the starting job in real-life! In his NFL debut, he threw for just 96 yards and a TD in a win over the LA Rams. The Rams played a sloppy game, and I don’t anticipate the Cardinals doing the same with having 2 weeks to prepare. Also noteworthy, Myles Gaskin is out for several weeks with a knee injury. He has been their workhorse for the last several weeks. My pick: Cardinals. 

The Money Play: I’m not recommending this pick by any means, for my reasons stated above. I think the Cardinals are the better team and they’ve had 2 weeks to gameplan…they’re also at home. However, Miami is a dangerous team with a fast defense that can make plays. If Tua is able to generate any type of offense through the air, they have the talent to upset the Cardinals. The money line is +200 to pick Miami and the spread is at +5 with an O/U of 48 (-110).  I like Arizona to cover the spread and I’ll take the over. 

PIT vs DAL

Alt+NFL: The Steelers have been struggling majorly. They’re the 31st ranked offense and are in last place in the AFC North. The Cowboys would be in the exact same position if it wasn’t for the lowly Washington Football Team sitting at 1-6. Both teams in this matchup have just 3 victories entering into this contest featuring contrasting strengths. The Steelers are a top 10 unit defensively but rank 31st on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys are near an exact flip. Their offense ranks 10th overall with the #1 rushing attack. However, their defense is ranked 31st. This should be a fun one to watch in a classic battle of Offense vs Defense.

Real NFL: Holy smokes the Steelers are going to kill Ben Dinucci. RIP.

The Money Play: See Above. The spread is at +/- 14. The ML is -800 PIT +500 DAL. The O/U is at just 41.5. The Pittsburgh defense might put up 40 off of fumble recovery returns alone. I’m confident in the spread and I’m leaning towards the over.  

NO vs TB

Alt+NFL: Both teams are sitting at 4-3 and 1-1 in divisional play. Unfortunately for them, the Falcons and Panthers are both at 5-3. As a bit of a surprise, Leonard Fournette has been the focal point of this Bucs offense with 398 yards and 6 TDs. Tommy Terrific is also having himself a nice year with a 9:4 TD to INT ratio and 1715 yards passing through 7 games. On the flip side, Drew Brees has a 12:5 TD to INT ratio and has done a really nice job of spreading the ball around in his offense. Four different players are over 350 yards either receiving or rushing. It’s a classic battle between two of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game. Let’s keep an eye on this one as a fun indicator for how to bet on the real NFL outcome. 

Real NFL: Essentially, we’re in a similar scenario as the Alt+NFL. Both the Saints (5-2) and the Bucs (6-2) are talented teams! I haven’t heard much positive talk about the Saints this season, but I remember a similar scenario in the last several years. The reality is, they just keep winning, and as long as they’re in position for a push, Drew can get hot and completely change our perception of this team. Tampa on the flip side has a TON of offensive firepower and a very sound defense. So far, Tom has done well distributing the ball and putting his defense in a position to win games. However, it hasn’t all been perfect! Tom has thrown some really ugly INT’s this year but ultimately made up for them. Just like the Alt+NFL, these two organizations are nearly identical in offensive and defensive production. Tampa hasn’t beaten New Orleans since 2018, for what that’s worth. 

The Money Play: Tampa is a 4.5 point favorite with the ML at +180 for New Orleans and the O/U at just 51.5 (-110). I’m all over the Saints ML and the over here. Michael Thomas is slated to return and that could be the missing piece for Brees and this functioning, but stale offense. UPSET CITY!

NE vs NYJ

Alt+NFL: The Patriots are statistically one of the best teams in the league with a 7th ranked offense and a 1st ranked defense, but alas, they’re just 4-3 following a big win last week over Buffalo. The Jets will need to focus on slowing down the Cam Newton to Julian Edelman connection which has gone for 493 yards and 3 TD through 7 weeks. That pales in comparison to the 613 yards and 9 TD that Sam Darnold has tossed to Jamison Crowder through 7 games, which is a league-best. The matchup between Gilmore and Crowder will be one to watch. However, I’m going with the Patriots to keep rolling.

Real NFL: Does anyone care? The Jets are 0-8 and New England is just 2-6. Bill Belicheck has started to make excuses…this is weird. Cam Newton looks bad. It makes me sad. It seems to me that he just never took the time to develop his throwing fundamentals and now that his superhuman strength is fading a little bit, he doesn’t have the skill-set to be an effective passer. I like the Pats in this one, but won’t be watching.

The Money Play: Ok, this is why gambling is fun. New England is favored by 7 points with a ML at -340 and +270 for the Jets. The O/U is at 42 (-110). Are we insane enough to think that Adam Gase can upset Bill? No. But if you are, here’s some food for thought. Adam Gase won 10 games and took Miami to the playoffs in year 1 as HC in Miami (AFC EAST). He then went on to go 6-10 and 7-9 before signing with the Jets. In his first year, he went  7-9. Year 2 he is 0-8. As a Head Coach in the AFC East, Adam Gase has played Bill’s New England Patriots 8 times total. Gase has a combined record of 2-6 with one win in 2017 MIA and 2018 MIA. His total margin of victory in the two contests 8 points. If you’re so bold as to wager on the Jets’ upset, just know…history is not on your side. 

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